2024 October ($42,100)

I deposit $1000/mo into a Fidelity investment account, $34,000 total since 2022. I try to pick stocks to hold until retirement.

While we’re looking at graphs, I’ve been back in the gym. (I was laid off in February fwiw.)

October weight lifting

My favorite book this month is Angela T. Davis, Women, Race & Class (243 pages)

Fund 1-month 3-month YTD 1-year
My Fund -1% 1.9% 13.5% 34.1%
S&P 500 -0.9% 3.7% 21% 38%
Dow Jones -0.7% 3.5% 19.8% 38%

Robinhood released a betting market for the election, which they only announced a few days ago. (Many Bothans died in the crunch for this feature.)

Robinhood election bet

I wish I knew more about bookie math, but this must be a lucrative feature. We’ll see more of this stuff.

The mainstreaminization of election betting is unsettling, paired with apps like Robinhood that enable meme-timing and rug pulls. I don’t like this thumb on the scales of elections.

Imagine a January 6th backed by a shitcoin. Picture an NFL game stormed by fans securing their bag, or a coach throwing a game. Rigged events are staggeringly more profitable than uncontrolled ones. Dangerous.

I hope I’m just overvaluing the impact of my own discipline and the research I’ve been doing for my book. See you on the other side.

Anyway, I heard Costco is making up to $200 million a month selling gold bars, and they’re expanding into platinum.

And SMCI is down a bunch after they reported their auditor resigned. I saw they were 11% of NVDA’s revenue, their 3rd largest customer. I think I hadn’t bought them because they looked inflated, but now they look cheap - if they don’t go under, I guess.

Airlines Check In

Let’s check in on my airlines, it’s been about a year since I got into them.

shrs cost value $gain %gain tkr div description acct% cat area type
3.2 $ 117 $ 183 $ 68 58% DAL 1.5% DELTA AIR L 0.4% travel USA air
2.2 $ 88 $ 172 $ 84 95% UAL 0.0% UNITED AIRL 0.4% travel USA air
2 $ 54 $ 61 $ 9 13% LUV 2.4% SOUTHWEST A 0.1% travel USA air
0 $ (0) $ - $ 0 0% ALK 0.0% ALASKA AIR 0.0% travel USA air
0 $ 18 $ - $ (18) -22% AAL 0.0% AMERICAN AI 0.0% travel USA air
0 $ (3) $ - $ 3 9% JBLU 0.0% JETBLUE AWY 0.0% travel USA air
0 $ 31 $ - $ (29) -36% ALGT 1.9% ALLEGIANT T 0.0% travel USA air
0 $ 27 $ - $ (26) -60% SAVE 2.2% SPIRIT AIRL 0.0% travel USA air

I sold off most of them, but held onto the larger ones, mostly Delta and United, and they had a good month. It looks like I “should have” held on to Alaska, American, and Jet Blue as well.

Travel continues to be my most profitable category by percent gained.

cat gain% gain$
multi 32% $3,985
finance 28% $1,894
tech 21% $1,233
health -8% -$271
energy -3% -$94
coms 12% $178
industry 6% $140
food 5% $61
cars 32% $449
travel 47% $823
retail -15% -$311
media -7% -$91
ETF 9% $92

My overall strategy was not to try to time the market, but I couldn’t help myself in this category, and here we are. Lesson learned? I’m more willing to hold airlines long term than I was with cruises, but I haven’t made up my mind.

Exits

Speaking of cruises, I left 20 more positions this month, continuing my quest to consolidate.

thismo shrs cost value $gain %gain tkr div description acct% cat area type
-$19 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 0% SCHW 1.1% SCHWAB CHAR 0.0% finance USA bank
-$20 0 $ (5) $ 0 $ 5 35% KKR 0.5% KKR &CO INC 0.0% multi USA invest
-$34 0 $ (8) $ - $ 8 15% BUD 1.6% ANHEUSER-BU 0.0% food Europe beer
-$25 0 $ 98 $ - $ (98) -39% WBD 0.0% WARNER BROS 0.0% media USA  
-$24 0 $ 3 $ - $ (3) -10% GMAB 0.0% GENMAB AS S 0.0% health Europe biotech
-$24 0 $ 12 $ - $ (9) -15% NTR 4.1% NUTRIEN LTD 0.0% industry America fertal
-$24 0 $ (4) $ - $ 4 19% AZPN 0.0% ASPEN TECHN 0.0% industry USA sw
-$23 0 $ (20) $ - $ 35 46% OMF 19.8% ONEMAIN HLD 0.0% finance USA insure
-$23 0 $ (3) $ - $ 3 7% ORLY 0.0% OREILLY AUT 0.0% cars USA parts
-$23 0 $ (4) $ - $ 4 23% MS 2.1% MORGAN STAN 0.0% finance USA bank
-$21 0 $ (70) $ - $ 70 37% NCLH 0.0% NORWEGIAN C 0.0% travel USA cruise
-$20 0 $ 110 $ - $ (91) -44% WB 8.9% WEIBO ADR R 0.0% tech China sw
-$19 0 $ (8) $ - $ 8 29% AMT 1.2% AMERICAN TO 0.0% coms USA reit
-$19 0 $ (95) $ - $ 95 66% CCL 0.0% CARNIVAL CO 0.0% travel USA cruise
-$17 0 $ 10 $ - $ (9) -36% DG 0.9% DOLLAR GEN 0.0% retail USA  
-$17 0 $ (80) $ - $ 80 58% CUK 0.0% CARNIVAL AD 0.0% travel USA cruise
-$15 0 $ (1) $ - $ 1 7% MTD 0.0% METTLER-TO 0.0% industry USA science
-$13 0 $ (3) $ - $ 3 35% BN 0.6% BROOKFIELD 0.0% finance America invest
-$12 0 $ (2) $ - $ 2 23% BAM 2.7% BROOKFIELD 0.0% finance USA invest
-$11 0 $ (2) $ - $ 2 17% WAT 0.0% WATERS COR 0.0% industry USA science

Here are the graphs I use to track my consolidation.

October consolidation

I’m back under 200 positions. My average position size (relative to how much I’ve deposited rather than the current value of my account) is higher than it was at the start of 2023, and that average size is a little over 0.5% of my total account.

There’s more consolidation to go, and I’m still not quite sure where it’ll settle out, but it’s exciting to watch.

Reduced

These are the positions I’m getting ready to exit, slow and steady.

%pos> thismo shrs cost value $gain %gain tkr div description acct% cat area type
-26% -$27 0.6 $ 10 $ 76 $ 74 34% CE 3.8% CELANESE CO 0.2% industry USA chem
-26% -$19 0.75 $ 46 $ 54 $ 8 12% OKTA 0.0% OKTA INC CL 0.1% tech USA secure
-46% -$44 0.25 $ (376) $ 52 $ 428 261% RCL 0.1% ROYAL CARIB 0.1% travel USA cruise
-35% -$27 0.5 $ 25 $ 50 $ 27 33% MKSI 2.2% MKS INSTRS 0.1% industry USA sc’s
-33% -$21 1.5 $ 32 $ 42 $ 14 19% SCHD 4.6% SCHWAB US D 0.1% ETF USA  
-34% -$21 0.5 $ 28 $ 41 $ 15 22% CF 3.3% CF INDUSTRI 0.1% industry USA fertal
-35% -$19 0.5 $ 24 $ 36 $ 12 16% KMX 0.0% CARMAX INC 0.1% cars USA used
-47% -$24 1 $ 73 $ 27 $ (46) -21% SIRI 0.0% LIBERTY MED 0.1% media USA liberty
-51% -$22 0.04 $ 20 $ 22 $ 1 3% ROP 0.3% ROPER TECHN 0.1% industry USA science

Bought

I expanded 66 different positions this month. That’s still a lot, and I’m going to have to narrow my focus as my selling slows down.

# %pos> thismo shrs cost value $gain %gain tkr div description acct% cat area type
1 7% $230 16 $ 2,916 $ 3,615 $ 709 24% AAPL 0.4% APPLE INC 8.6% multi USA tech
2 7% $214 8.2 $ 3,162 $ 3,332 $ 183 6% MSFT 0.4% MICROSOFT C 7.9% multi USA tech
4 7% $169 15.8 $ 2,072 $ 2,728 $ 661 32% GOOG 0.3% ALPHABET IN 6.5% multi USA tech
5 8% $185 13.3 $ 2,258 $ 2,476 $ 218 10% AMZN 0.0% AMAZON.COM 5.9% multi USA tech
6 4% $46 2.7 $ 1,074 $ 1,217 $ 143 13% BRK.B 0.0% BERKSHIRE H 2.9% multi USA  
7 2% $18 4.6 $ 474 $ 876 $ 411 87% TSM 1.9% TAIWAN SEMI 2.1% tech Asia sc’s
12 11% $50 1 $ 461 $ 500 $ 40 9% MA 0.1% MASTERCARD 1.2% finance USA credit
13 13% $55 1.7 $ 462 $ 493 $ 31 7% V 0.2% VISA INC 1.2% finance USA credit
19 6% $24 3.2 $ 259 $ 425 $ 166 64% NVDA 0.0% NVIDIA CORP 1.0% tech USA sc’s
34 5% $13 0.8 $ 275 $ 262 $ (13) -5% CHTR 0.0% CHARTER COM 0.6% coms USA  
35 5% $11 12 $ 403 $ 258 $ (129) -32% INTC 3.9% INTEL CORP 0.6% tech USA sc’s
36 5% $12 2.2 $ 246 $ 257 $ 19 8% XOM 3.5% EXXON MOBIL 0.6% energy USA oil
37 5% $12 0.44 $ 229 $ 248 $ 21 9% UNH 0.9% UNITEDHEALT 0.6% health USA insure
40 6% $14 0.85 $ 177 $ 230 $ 54 30% AXP 0.6% AMERICAN EX 0.5% finance USA credit
41 17% $32 1.4 $ 224 $ 224 $ 3 2% JNJ 1.4% JOHNSON &JO 0.5% health USA tech
43 9% $17 1.2 $ 166 $ 204 $ 39 24% AVGO 0.7% BROADCOM IN 0.5% tech USA sc’s
47 10% $17 1.1 $ 141 $ 185 $ 45 32% ORCL 0.6% ORACLE CORP 0.4% tech USA cloud
51 9% $14 2.7 $ 172 $ 176 $ 8 5% KO 2.2% COCA-COLA C 0.4% food USA cola
64 10% $14 0.5 $ 132 $ 146 $ 14 11% CRM 0.2% SALESFORCE 0.3% tech USA cloud
66 8% $10 0.3 $ 167 $ 143 $ (24) -14% ADBE 0.0% ADOBE INC C 0.3% tech USA sw
67 6% $9 1.8 $ 134 $ 143 $ 12 9% NEE 2.2% NEXTERA ENE 0.3% energy USA util
69 9% $12 0.84 $ 143 $ 140 $ (1) -1% PEP 1.6% PEPSICO INC 0.3% food USA cola
71 45% $41 0.2 $ 175 $ 135 $ (40) -23% ASML 0.1% ASML HOLDIN 0.3% tech Europe sc’s
74 14% $16 0.9 $ 142 $ 130 $ (12) -9% AMD 0.0% ADVANCED MI 0.3% tech USA sc’s
75 12% $13 1.9 $ 124 $ 128 $ 8 6% SHEL 2.9% SHELL PLC S 0.3% energy Europe oil
76 11% $11 0.5 $ 102 $ 112 $ 10 10% ADI 0.7% ANALOG DEVI 0.3% tech USA sc’s
77 14% $14 0.45 $ 115 $ 111 $ (4) -3% DHR 0.2% DANAHER COR 0.3% industry USA health
79 11% $10 0.45 $ 81 $ 100 $ 20 24% TMUS 0.4% T-MOBILE US 0.2% coms USA  
86 16% $13 0.23 $ 90 $ 93 $ 3 3% DE 0.5% DEERE & CO 0.2% industry USA farm
89 15% $12 0.8 $ 104 $ 90 $ (14) -13% NVO 0.4% NOVO NORDIS 0.2% health Europe pharm
91 17% $13 0.65 $ 89 $ 88 $ (1) -2% ABNB 0.0% AIRBNB INC 0.2% travel USA rent
92 16% $12 0.16 $ 79 $ 87 $ 9 11% LMT 1.0% LOCKHEED MA 0.2% industry USA aero
93 17% $12 0.37 $ 91 $ 86 $ (4) -4% UNP 0.7% UNION PAC C 0.2% industry USA rail
94 13% $10 0.26 $ 79 $ 83 $ 5 6% AMGN 0.7% AMGEN INC 0.2% health USA pharm
96 15% $11 0.4 $ 73 $ 83 $ 11 15% IBM 0.8% INTERNATIO 0.2% tech USA cloud
97 15% $11 0.9 $ 95 $ 82 $ (13) -13% BIDU 0.0% BAIDU INC S 0.2% tech China sw
98 18% $12 0.15 $ 87 $ 82 $ (5) -5% TMO 0.1% THERMO FISH 0.2% health USA tech
100 18% $12 1.4 $ 98 $ 79 $ (17) -14% CVS 1.9% CVS HEALTH 0.2% retail USA health
104 14% $9 0.8 $ 67 $ 71 $ 6 8% MDT 1.1% MEDTRONIC P 0.2% health Europe devices
105 20% $12 0.12 $ 64 $ 69 $ 4 7% MSCI 0.1% MSCI INC 0.2% finance USA indices
106 20% $11 0.6 $ 65 $ 68 $ 3 5% ABT 0.3% ABBOTT LAB 0.2% health USA tech
108 21% $12 0.24 $ 66 $ 68 $ 2 3% CB 0.3% CHUBB LIMI 0.2% finance USA insure
110 20% $11 0.6 $ 68 $ 66 $ (2) -3% COP 0.5% CONOCOPHIL 0.2% energy USA oil
113 21% $11 0.24 $ 58 $ 63 $ 5 9% LOW 0.6% LOWES COMPA 0.1% retail USA home
117 13% $7 0.19 $ 65 $ 60 $ (5) -8% CI 0.6% THE CIGNA G 0.1% health USA insure
119 10% $5 0.22 $ 45 $ 58 $ 13 30% CEG 0.1% CONSTELLAT 0.1% energy USA nuclear
120 15% $7 0.8 $ 57 $ 58 $ 1 1% UBER 0.0% UBER TECHNO 0.1% travel USA ride
122 22% $10 0.14 $ 75 $ 57 $ (17) -23% ELV 0.4% ELEVANCE HE 0.1% health USA insure
123 16% $8 0.15 $ 51 $ 56 $ 5 10% CAT 0.5% CATERPILLAR 0.1% industry USA farm
124 12% $6 0.45 $ 40 $ 56 $ 17 42% VST 0.3% VISTRA COR 0.1% energy USA nuclear
125 17% $8 0.012 $ 47 $ 56 $ 9 20% BKNG 0.2% BOOKING HO 0.1% travel USA sw
131 25% $10 0.25 $ 50 $ 51 $ 1 2% HON 0.4% HONEYWELL I 0.1% industry USA aero
132 29% $11 0.5 $ 60 $ 51 $ (9) -14% MRK 0.6% MERCK &CO. 0.1% health America pharm
134 15% $7 0.8 $ 55 $ 50 $ (4) -8% TTE 1.4% TOTAL ENER 0.1% energy Europe oil
139 21% $8 0.12 $ 45 $ 47 $ 3 7% HD 1.0% HOME DEPOT 0.1% retail USA home
140 12% $5 0.9 $ 41 $ 47 $ 6 14% CCJ 0.0% CAMECO COR 0.1% energy USA nuclear
147 51% $15 1.5 $ 47 $ 46 $ (1) -1% E 1.2% ENI ADR 0.1% energy Europe oil
148 25% $9 0.5 $ 40 $ 45 $ 5 12% PEG 0.7% PUBLIC SVC 0.1% energy USA nuclear
150 28% $9 0.25 $ 42 $ 43 $ 1 2% GE 0.2% GE AEROSPA 0.1% industry America aero
151 38% $12 4 $ 50 $ 43 $ (4) -7% VALE 7.1% VALE S.A. S 0.1% industry America mine
152 48% $14 0.3 $ 36 $ 42 $ 6 18% ARM 0.0% ARM HOLDIN 0.1% tech Europe hw
156 25% $8 0.15 $ 40 $ 41 $ 1 4% FDX 0.9% FEDEX CORP 0.1% industry USA post
159 22% $7 0.25 $ 33 $ 39 $ 6 20% DASH 0.0% DOORDASH I 0.1% food USA delivery
173 25% $6 0.5 $ 30 $ 32 $ 2 7% HDB 0.5% HDFC BANK L 0.1% finance Asia bank
178 40% $8 0.2 $ 34 $ 29 $ (5) -15% MPC 0.0% MARATHON P 0.1% energy USA oil
185 66% $10 0.3 $ 31 $ 24 $ (6) -20% NTES 1.3% NETEASE INC 0.1% tech China games

All Holdings

See the attached PDF of my holdings, it’s colorful. (BMWYY is going through an event that I’m still sorting out, so that data is off.)

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